Bitcoin (BTC) edged lower on Tuesday but remained above a key technical level after extending its recent recovery. The cryptocurrency was trading around $64,361, holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $64,355 after gaining 2.5% in the previous session.
The latest rebound has been supported by renewed institutional interest, with US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording more than $137 million in net inflows on Monday. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on broader market sentiment, potentially limiting Bitcoin’s near-term upside.
Institutional Demand Returns
Institutional interest in Bitcoin improved at the start of the week. Data from CoinGlass showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $137.30 million in net inflows on Monday, ending a three-session streak of outflows.
Corporate Bitcoin treasury activity also remained in focus. Strategy said on Monday that it had increased its US dollar reserve by $150 million, taking total reserves to $4.80 billion. The company also repurchased approximately $132 million worth of STRC shares through its Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program.
Despite these capital-management moves, Strategy did not buy or sell Bitcoin during the previous week. Its total Bitcoin holdings therefore remained unchanged at 840,447 BTC.
The developments suggest that Strategy is currently prioritizing liquidity and capital-structure management as financial markets continue to navigate elevated uncertainty.
Middle East Tensions Keep Pressure on Risk Assets
Geopolitical developments remain another important factor for Bitcoin traders.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident caused damage to the vessel’s engine room and resulted in a crew casualty, while the remaining crew received assistance from the Omani Coast Guard, according to Reuters.
The latest incident comes amid continued uncertainty surrounding US-Iran relations. On Monday, US President Donald Trump said he was not interested in renewing the agreement with Iran that is approaching expiration.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, meanwhile, said an agreement had remained difficult to reach because of security concerns and what he described as the “obstructionist behavior of destructive elements.” He also called on the US to remove its blockade.
The continued uncertainty could undermine investor risk appetite and encourage demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar. Such a shift could make it more difficult for Bitcoin to sustain a stronger recovery in the short term.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook Shows Modest Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin was trading near $64,361 on Tuesday, just above its 50-day EMA at approximately $64,355. The level is an important near-term support area for the cryptocurrency.
However, Bitcoin remains below its 100-day EMA at $66,366, which represents an immediate technical resistance zone.
The broader retracement structure also points to significant resistance overhead. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level stands at $65,547, based on the move from the May 26 high of $78,080 to the July 1 yearly low of $57,800. The proximity of this level to the 100-day EMA could make the $65,500-$66,400 region difficult for buyers to overcome.
Momentum indicators offer a mixed but slightly constructive picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 51, indicating relatively neutral momentum with a modest bullish bias. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly below zero, suggesting that Bitcoin has yet to establish a strong directional trend.
Key Levels to Watch
On the upside, Bitcoin’s first significant resistance is around $65,547. A sustained move above this level could bring the 100-day EMA at $66,366 into focus.
Beyond that, the $66,500 horizontal resistance area and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $67,940 could present additional barriers for buyers.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA near $64,355 is the first important support level. A decisive break below it could expose Bitcoin to the next support around $62,586, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Further losses could bring the horizontal support near $62,300 into focus.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to remain above the 50-day EMA will be important in determining whether the recent recovery can develop into a broader rebound. Stronger institutional inflows could provide additional support, while renewed geopolitical tensions and resistance around $65,500-$66,500 may continue to restrict gains.
